'Africa Rising'

‘Africa Rising’

Posted on: 02-28-2012 Posted in: East Africa

By Brian Gillis

FEBRUARY 2012 – ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA: “Ok, now you are in Africa.” After a longer than anticipated stay in Egypt waiting unsuccessfully for Sudanese visas, we had at last arrived by plane in Ethiopia and were, we were told, finally in Africa—at least according to two of my friends, one of whose sociopolitical savvy prompted her to consider Egypt culturally disconnected entirely from the rest of Africa to its south, and the other whose cartographic cluelessness conversely lead her to believe that perhaps Egypt was on a different continent altogether. For the record, despite a definitive presence as one of Africa’s most populous nations and economically robust nations, Egypt is often associated instead with the macro-cultural identity known as MENA (Middle East, North Africa), and many ethnologists, historians, and authors continue to view Egypt as much (if not more) a part of the Middle East than Africa. It is an association that can be no more obviously illustrated than during the recent events of Arab spring, during which we all witnessed African countries like Tunisia, Egypt and Libya lumped seamlessly with Middle Eastern Arab nations (technically Asian from a continental standpoint) such as Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain, which though not on the same continent nor geographically contiguous are nevertheless extremely close on sociocultural lines (and political lines for that matter as Egypt and Syria for 3 years—1958 to 1961—were actually the same country, the United Arab Republic).

So, this is all to say in a very longwinded fashion that yes, if there were any doubts before, we were now finally in Africa. We had exited the Pharaonic capitals of the longest-running ancient empire—in many ways one of the premiere cradles of civilization—and now found ourselves instead in Ethiopia and the great East African rift valley, the very cradle of humanity itself (as Lucy would attest). Although Dave had been to sub-Saharan Africa several times before (just as I this was not my first trip to the Middle East), it was my first time south of the Sahara, and I was unprepared for the ubiquity of need I was about to encounter—countless pleas for food, dozens of handicapped or severely crippled men and women inhabiting the sidewalks, young boys struggling to buy a shoe shining kit so they can make a bit of money cleaning the broken leather shoes of the have-littles. Although beautiful in its landscapes and hospitality, its traditions and religious festivities (we arrived on the eve of Ethiopia’s Timket/Epiphany), Africa seemed on first glance to be in quite tough shape.

Shining shoes in Addis Ababa

I found myself asking questions—chief among them: how did Africa become this way? Scouring Addis Ababa’s bookstores for Jared Diamond’s Pulitzer Prize-winning “Guns, Germs, and Steel” (a highly acclaimed historico-scientific explanation of this very question), I instead stumbled upon the headquarters for the UN Economic Commission of Africa (ECA)—one of the largest UN buildings on the planet. Although I had been drawn there by reviews of its bookstore, I found instead an architectural and artistic masterpiece—its magnificent murals depicting Africa’s struggle for independence, marathon runners flaunting the banners, and visages of countless African revolutionaries and leaders (of note: among these visages was a single nondescript outline, symbolizing the unfortunately common coup d’etats that have characterized African political history).

In the end, I left the ECA bookstore with a copy of the Economist. Its cover headline simple and intriguing: “Africa Rising.” The bookstore manager, who had during his break taken me on a tour of the building, handed it to me enthusiastically. “If what the ECA is doing doesn’t make you optimistic about the economic situation of this continent,” he said, “perhaps this will add a little more hope.”

*****

It is well-known that optimism about Africa is hard to come by. New stories seem ever-focused on the region’s entrenched corruption, chronic poverty, recurrent coups, extensive famine, and persistent infectious diseases that are all but exterminated from Western society—reinforcing the assumption that Africa is a place of overwhelming problems, insoluble by individuals and exacerbated by governments. In light of this, I was excited to see the Economist’s rather optimistic spin on Africa—not the least bit because of the periodical’s rather negative view on the continent just over a decade ago, when columnists labeled it “the hopeless continent” (The Economist, cover story, 13 May 2000). Moreover, I hoped the journal’s new take might spark a change of opinion among the tens of thousands of ‘movers and shakers’ also reading it who have to date shunned investment in the continent.

Although the magazine begins with a stern reminder that optimism in Africa’s economy should be held cautiously as much changes on a regular basis, it nonetheless provides an overwhelming amount of cause for hope. For anyone well-versed in the stagnant national growth rates experienced in the wake of 2008, it is encouraging to learn that over a dozen African nations have economically expanded by more than 6% per anum for the last six straight years or more. While the rest of the world claws its way out of recession, African inflation has dropped 14%, foreign debts have declined 25%, and budget deficits have droped by 66%. Ethiopia itself, which was “once a byword for famine” now ranks tenth worldwide in production of livestock, and has seen remarkable improvements in its historically devastatingly unequal income distribution. And not just in Ethiopia. Across Africa, a “genuine middle class is emerging.” It is estimated that in the next five years alone, the number of Africans earning over $3,000 a year (admittedly not much, but in many African nations this is a comfortable income) will jump from 60 million people to over 100 million, while the ‘lower middle class’ making $700 annually (economically vulnerable but nonetheless capable of some consumption beyond simple subsistence) now make up over 300 million people in the continent. The IMF feels this is not a halted progress, expecting the continent’s growth to exceed 5% in 2012—and for some countries over 10%. The World Bank concurs, indicating Africa is “on the brink of an economic take-off” not much unlike China three decades ago and India two decades ago. Could the 2010’s be Africa’s decade?

While the likelihood of an autocatalytic wave of foreign investment (encouraging growth, thereby encouraging more investment and subsequently more growth) itself lends support for these ambitious forecasts, so too does Africa’s demographic distribution. Historically, regions with declining birth rates have found strong advantage when their ratio of working -age citizens increases with respect to dependents (children, elderly). In fact, this so-called “demographic dividends” was essential to the explosive economic growth of the US and subsequently Asia and soon could have explosive impact in Africa as well. Although by some estimates the population of Africa may double to nearly 2 billion in just 40 years, birth rates are in fact dropping (though not as consistently as one would hope, and not in the strongest economic zones of the continent), and just as the roaring Asian tigers rose a generation ago on their backs of cheap working-age labor, the roaring “African Lions” may see there boom as this generation’s children and adolescents mature.

The world is taking note of these trends. In the last 11 years alone, non-African trade with Africa has increased by 200%. Among some of the world’s newest economic powers (Brazil, Russia, India, China—the so-called BRIC), trade has increased from 1% to 20%, with the possibility of continuing to nearly half of all African trade partnerships as the BRIC countries themselves continue to grow and increase in their demand. The Chinese in particular have responded to the ripe economic environment in Africa, and many Chinese have now permanently moved to Africa and are providing a novel foreign-gone-local band of entrepreneurs.

Construction underway in Addis Ababa

The Economist certainly has many of its own theories on why Africa has seen such growth in the face of otherwise near-global recession. They cite a strong trend towards privatization (Nigeria alone has made more than 100 concessions to the private market in lieu of state control), more “pro-business policies” (per the World Bank’s Doing Business report over three quarters of African governments have made pro-business reforms), and the elimination of trade barriers within regions. Although poor road conditions continues to limit trade even between some neighboring nations (a la Kenya and Ethiopia), intra-African trade has nearly doubled in recent years, particularly with the formation of regional trade entities such as the Economic Community of West African States or the East African Community, which initiated a common market just last year. Political changes have also helped the macro-economy, with the elimination of apartheid alone contributing a 1% rise in the continent’s GDP growth, according to some estimates.

*****

Despite all the hope—not just the statistics, but also the roads being paved, the high-rises going up, the cell phones being bought, and the banking going mobile—I couldn’t help but ask the seemingly glaringly obvious question that the Economist nevertheless failed to ask: what does this mean for Africa’s poor? Sure direct foreign investment has skyrocketed to $55 billion, nearly five times what it was in 2000, but is that really going to help the poorest rural communities in Ethiopia’s Somali or Tigray regions? Can trickle-down economics save the urban slums quicker than they are growing? As foreign investment fuels growth of new industries, and new industries demand skilled labor, what does this mean for the vast numbers of unskilled individuals whose access to primary and secondary education has been limited if present at all? It’s great that Chinese and Indian immigrants have invested so heavily in Africa, but with their increasing presence on the continent, will they simply fill domestic demand for cheap and skilled labor while reducing the urgency to correct the failed public education systems that have facilitated the shortage of skilled African labor? My fear is that the signs of hope touted by the Economist will remain only for signs for the hedge funds in New York seeking exotic new investments, and the foreign and domestic businessmen receiving their funds. “Foreign investment” sounds great and makes for great bar graphs, but will it really help the man who is selling otherwise-free Ethiopian Airlines toothbrushes to passersby, even while he noticeably lacks sufficient means to maintain adequate dental hygiene himself? Will the rows of Ethiopian shoe shiners see any change? Or will ‘Africa rising’ simply mean an increase in the quality of leather they polish?

Will he see a benefit from Africa rising?

GDP growth is great, but it is not the be-all, end-all. Africa must aim to leverage its economic growth for a leap forward in the much more important Human Development Index (HDI), so that real change can be seen not just in Africa’s profitability but by its people. Perhaps this is why the ECA exists. But beyond the UN, Africa’s governments (which have become increasingly stable compared to prior more pessimistic decades) must more emphatically push for more sizable and sustainable change in the lives of their poorest denizens. Only then, I believe, will we truly see Africa—all of Africa—rising.